Hi Folks;

We have finally had a break from precipitation in the La Crosse area. This ends the 3rd longest string of days(19) with a trace or more of precipitation.(We came up two days shy of the record.) The airport has recorded no precipitation for February 15, 2013. The streak which has included snow, rain, freezing rain/drizzle, and ice pellets, began on January 27th. It has included snowfall of 4.9″ on January 30th and 2.4″ on February 1st. Total precipitation of 0.42″ fell on January 27th and 0.37″ fell on February 10th, most of that was rainfall! Here is a little more information on this unusual stretch of wet weather:

It’s part of a more normal wintry scene for the region with near normal snowfall, and total precipitation is running above normal since the first of the year. (Check out the graphic below.)

We are in a drought situation, so this has been good news, despite the slippery roads that accompany the ice and snow. We will certainly need help from Spring and Summer rainfall to get real relief. Winter-time precipitation, even in a very productive season, doesn’t provide enough to really make a big dent in these situations. So cross your fingers for that spring rainfall. Don’t wish too hard, though. We don’t want a flood situation to take the place of too little rain!

Chief Meteorologist Dan Breeden

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Hi All;

There will be a progression of interesting weather across our part of the country. The weather systems are driven by changes in the jet stream and the high and low pressure areas that are spawned from those upper level features. In the first three graphics, today, Friday and Saturday, you’ll notice that we are in the warm part of the weather pattern, the upper ridge position. That will keep our temperatures above normal; and by Friday night and Saturday thunderstorms are possible.

By Sunday we are under the trough coming in from the west. A surface front associated with it will move in and dramatically drop our temperatures, and produce showers and thunderstorms.

By Monday the coldest air will arrive and stick around into the middle of next week. Highs will move into the 60s on Saturday and by Monday will reach only the lower 30s. Such is November in the Seven Rivers Region.
Until next time enjoy the weather!

Dan Breeden
News 19 Chief Meteorologist

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Hello All;

A weak low pressure system acted on a very unstable moist air mass triggering thunderstorms that produced large hail and damaging winds. There was at least one report of a tornado south of Prairie du Chien. Reports of large hail started coming in at about 4 PM in Winona County and it culminated with tornado winds near Patch Grove south of P. D. C at about 7:40 PM. The storms transitioned from “hailers” to wind damage produces as they moved into Vernon County and moved southeast from there. They also produced heavy rainfall with the heaviest amounts of up to 4 inches or so in Eastern Allamakee and Western Crawford Counties, then south into Grant County. Some localized flooding occurred because of rates as high as 2 inches per hour.

We received a number of great photos that showed mammatus clouds, too. They are low hanging pockets of moist cool dense air and they look like pouches. Here’s an example or two:

My thanks to John Jaeger for the first picture, and an unknown viewer for the second.

Until next time, happy sky watching!

News 19 Chief Meteorologist Dan Breeden

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Whew!  Glad that is over!  Unless you are a fan of triple-digit heat, I’m sure many are breathing a sigh of relief after the intense heat that scorched the nation for a week or more.  Here’s a look back at the record setting temps we had last week:

Temperatures were 15-20 degrees above average, with records set on the 4th and 6th

The peak heat index was at 105 degrees or higher during all five of the days during the hot streak, while only 2 of the days were above 100 on the thermometer.  This shows that when the humidity is high enough, temperatures do not necessarily have to be in the triple digits to feel like the triple digits to the skin.  In fact, the highest heat index during the heat wave at 111 was on the “coolest” day of the streak on Thursday.

This was all put in play by a strong, persistent ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere.  The pattern not only forced air downward from aloft due to the high pressure (and remember, sinking air warms and dries out while descending), but very humid air from the south was also fed into the Midwest.  This combination factored into the extreme heat.

While these conditions were unbearable at times, this was not the worst La Crosse has experience with regards to heat.  The majority of the daily temperature records during the summer come from the middle 1930′s.  The earliest occurrence of the 100′s happened on May 31, 1934, with the longest stretch in the 100′s is at 9 days, ending on July 14, 1936 (all of this before “modern” conveniences like air conditioning!  Yikes!).

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Figure 1: Almost 3" of rain fell between late April and the first week of May

Nice to be done with the rain and the storms for a while, isn’t it?  Today marks the second day in a row where rain will not make an appearance, and the first such stretch since late last April (Fig. 1).  Nearly 2/3′s of a month’s worth of rain came down over a 10 day period.

Figure 2: Mississippi River forecast for La Crosse (National Weather Service)

 The recent stretch of soggy and stormy weather has had a wide array of impacts on the Coulee Region.  Severe storms knocked down trees and power lines from Alma to Blair, and caused flash flooding in Wabasha on May 2nd.  Stormy weather the morning of May 6th interfered with the La Crosse Fitness Festival’s marathon and half-marathon races.  The Black and the Trempealeau Rivers rose to near flooding early this week before receding, and the Mississippi is expected to jump up to 9 feet for a while as it absorbs all of the recent rain water (Fig 2).

Figure 3: Moderate drought has moved back to west of Rochester (U.S. Drought Monitor)

We definitely needed that hefty soaking, despite all of the unwanted side-effects of damaging storms.  I have been curious to see if the recent showers would a dent in the drought across Minnesota, and, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor’s report released today, there has been some improvement in the drought in the News 19 viewing area (Figure 3).  Abnormally dry conditions still linger in Trempealeau, Buffalo, Winona, and La Crosse counties, but drought conditions moved back west of Rochester.  Crops will still be slow to grow under these dry conditions, but any other agricultural, ground water, or fire risk issues have been lessened by the soggy stretch of weather. 

Figure 4: Since last summer, the Midwest has been below average on precipitation, especially in Minnesota, which has led to a moderate drought (Midwest Regional Climate Center)

This good news comes with a big BUT: there is still some way to go before we can be free of the drought that plagues most of Minnesota.  We are still in a precipitation deficit, so more long periods of rain are needed (Figure 4).  The U.S. Drought Monitor does paint a rosier picture going forward into this summer.  Improvement in drought conditions have been forecasted for Minnesota, with areas of southern Minnesota seeing enough precipitation ease or completely get rid of the abnormally dry conditions (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Some improvement is expected going into this summer for Minnesota's drought

My hope here is that there is a nice balance between the rain and the dry weather from here on out so we don’t get stuck with too much rain after being too dry (as in “be careful what you wish for..”).

Have any questions, comments, or just want to chat about how much you liked to disliked the recent soggy weather?  Shoot me an email at akirchner@wxow.com!

-News 19 Meteorologist Alex Kirchner.

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The weather this Spring has been interesting, to say the least. Rainfall has been sparse at times in our region, but May is off to a wet start, and the weather systems so far this month have been efficient rain producers. La Crosse, in May, has had 2.23″ which is 1.21″ above normal.  We have had a couple of severe weather events this month. The most notable, supercells that produced damage in Trempealeau County, especially in Blair and surrounding areas. That doesn’t mean this is a long term trend, but each system deserves a little more attention from you folks out in the firing line. Just look at the major national outbreaks we have had over the last two years. And, of course, The May 22, 2011, La Crosse tornado is a stark reminder that we need to be aware, and to react accordingly. There is good news in the forecast for the next 7 days as even though rain my move in Friday PM/evening and again next Tuesday and Wednesday, we don’t see a significant threat of severe thunderstorms.

La Crosse 7 Day Forecast

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Fire and ice are two things that you wouldn’t normally have mixed together, but this week’s forecast has both with the fire danger that is gripping southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the threat for icy frost over the next couple nights.

3 ingredients are needed for dangerous fire conditions: dry air, dry brush, and gusty winds

We’ll start with the fire danger: both Minnesota and Wisconsin are at a Very High to Extreme fire danger rating.  Both mean that fires can start and spread very quickly, and are very difficult to contain, control, and stop once they get going.  We get conditions like these when the vegetation is dry, providing plenty of fuel for fires (this is especially true in southern Minnesota, where the moderate to severe drought has spread into the Coulee Region).  Dry air (humidity below 30%) is needed, as moist air will hinder the fire’s development.  The final ingredient, and a very important one for Very High to Extreme fire danger, is a strong, gusty breeze or wind.  Stronger winds will help the fire spread quickly, as it can scatter burning fuel (vegetation), embers, and sparks to rapidly spread the current fire and start new ones in other locations.  On days like these, check the DNR’s website about the day’s fire risks and restrictions and be very careful when using anything involving an open flame or sparks outside, including lighting or discarding cigarettes, working with power tools or engines, and, of course, no burning!

On the opposite side of things, icy weather invades the Coulee Region again tonight.  Temperatures will drop into the upper 20′s, which is considered a “hard freeze”.  This means prolonged exposure to subfreezing temperatures and a hard frost development, which is very damaging to unprotected crops and other cold-sensitive plants (think frostbite, but for plants- they’re cells will freeze and burst, killing parts or all of the plant).  We typically have lows like these around this time of year.  The best way to combat the killing frost is, if possible, to move plants indoors, or cover them with a blanket or heavy sheet to prevent the frost from forming on the plants.  This is tricky, though, when temperatures stay at or below freezing for an extended period, like tonight.  We usually do not see relief from the frosty nights under late this month.

Good new on both the fire and ice fronts is the weather this weekend:  Much needed rain will soak the Coulee Region between Friday and Sunday, with as much as 1 1/2 inches falling between the three days.  There is still some uncertainty this early in the week about the exact amount exactly where, but at least some precipitation is coming.  At the same time, the overnight lows will be much warmer, possibly as warm as the 50′s overnight, getting rid of the frosty nights.

As always, if you have any questions, be sure to drop me a line!  Stay warm (or cool, depending on the time of day)!- Meteorologist Alex Kirchner, akirchner@wxow.com

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Not a big surprise- March 2012 is the warmest March on record for La Crosse with a the mean temperature for La Crosse is 50.4° – the mean temperature being the average of all of the high and low temperature values for each day this month.

The fact that this month beat out the former top March by nearly 4° is impressive, considering how much warmth is needed to increase an average temperature by four degrees:

Highest Mean Temperatures for March

1) March 2012: 50.4°

2) March 1878: 47.1°

3) March 1910: 45.7°

4) March 1946: 44.5°

5) March 1945: 43.0°

One observation about March 1910: I noticed that most of the daily temperature records broken this month (9 in total!  Nearly 1/3 of the month had record-breaking days) were set in 1910.

In addition to the 9 days that set new high temperature records, there were 9 nights that had record warmth in the 60′s for the overnight temperature, and a few days with record high dew points in the 60′s.  We normally do not have dew points in the 60′s until the humid “dog days of summer”!  I know I at least will not be forgetting that beautiful stretch of 9 days in the 70′s and 80′s when it felt like summer- that was also a March record, beating out, you guessed it, March 1910.

The 9 days in a row with temperatures at 70° or higher set a record for the month of March

One final note: you might have noticed a connection here between March 2012 and March 1910.  That connection- climate variability.  Just like this past warm winter, every so often atmospheric conditions line up just right to have a record-breaking warm start to the spring season.  And it doesn’t have to happen every 100 years or so.  March 2000 and 2010 rank in the top 10 for warm March’s as well.  So enjoy the early green grass and beautiful spring weather, because at this time next year, who knows what we will be experiencing!

-Meteorologist Alex Kirchner

akirchner@wxow.com

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Wind chill.  These two words will be heard plenty over the next couples days in the midst of the latest outbreak of Arctic air (surprisingly, the La Crosse area 26 days with overnight lows below zero during an average winter; last night was just the first).  As you may know, wind chill is an apparent temperature.  If you go outside when the temperature is 5° with no breeze, and later go out when the temperature is 5° with a 10 m.p.h. breeze, the later time is going to “feel” a lot colder, despite the temperature being the same.

The reason for “feeling” colder lies in the role of that constant breeze or a stiff wind.   Moisture in your skin will evaporate when exposed to a breeze.  The evaporation process creates a cooling effect, which is why a fan or a breeze feels refreshing on a hot summer day.  That same breeze does not feel nice at all during the winter because of the same effect.

We may be "feeling" a wind chill of -10° to -25° over the next few days.

Here’s a chart showing how large of an impact just a light breeze has on how frigid temperatures feel.  Wednesday night through Friday will be especially nasty, as winds stay steady between 15 and 20 mph.  Advisories will be in effect for this time period because frostbite can set in within 10 minutes with wind chill that cold.  Here’s a link on our website about frostbite for tips on how to ward off the dangerous condition, especially for parents with little kids.

Try to stay warm!  Relief arrives this weekend with temperatures in the 30′s.  -News 19 Meteorologist Alex Kirchner

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A typical Midwestern winter had to start at some part, right?

Up until January 12th, I’m sure plenty of snowmobiles, sleds, and skis were collecting dust instead of powder.

Figure 1: 4.3″ of snow fell last month, which was 7″ below average, and at least 20″ behind the previous 4 Decembers.

December had an average high temperature of 35° and a whopping 4.3″ (Fig. 1) of snow for the entire month.  This month has had two record-setting 53° days, an average high of 41° until Tuesday, and just a trace of snow through Jan. 11th.

Why has this winter been so mild and relatively snow-free, despite predictions in November saying the opposite?

Let’s start with La Niña, which is influencing our weather right now. La Niña may sound familiar, as last winter was a La Niña winter. We were definitely wetter than average, especially last December.

During a La Niña event, cooler than average waters occur in the Pacific near South America (Fig. 2).  The jet stream that drives our weather gets its strength from the temperature contrast between the Equator and the North Pole, and when that contrast is weakened by a cooler Pacific, the jet sinks south.  In turn, weather patterns in North America are affected by the altered path of the polar jet (Fig. 3).

Figure 3: Usual impacts of La Niña on U.S. winters

We’ve been anything but cooler and wetter than average, so far.  Here’s the next step:  another disturbance called the Madden-Julien Oscillation (MJO) has come into play this winter (see how complex weather can be!).  I won’t bore you with the details, but the MJO can modify the jet stream further, and push it north into Canada.

Figure 4: The MJO alters the jet stream, and keeps precipitation and cold air north of the Midwest.

This matches the pattern we where in for the start of this winter (Fig. 4), with the polar jet keeping cold Arctic air bottled up in Canada (keeping us warmer than average), and keeping the main storm track north of the Midwest (less chances for snow).

Looking ahead, now that there is a decent amount of snow pack after Thursday’s storm, temperatures will stay colder than where we’ve been lately for a while (snow reflects sunlight, so the sun cannot heat up the air as easily and temperatures stay colder).

Figure 5: The CPC's forecast for the next 3 months

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting temperatures to stay near or slightly above average for the rest of winter, which may be MJO’s doing.  La Niña will still be playing a role this winter.  The CPC also has above average chances for precipitation for the Midwest (Fig. 5).  I guess that means we may have a chance at a true winter full of snow after all!  Stay tuned!

News 19 Meteorologist Alex Kirchner

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